I usually find the best approach to be the following.
Leave your mentality and defensive line settings as they are, but tick counter-attack if desired.
Drop the forward runs, run with ball of your full-backs to mixed or rarely. If they're set to short passing, go mixed or direct for them.
In the opposition instructions, remove any closing down on wingers and change to tight marking "always". Back in the player instructions screens, set your full-backs to tight marking, even if you prefer zonal to man marking.
In your team instructions screen, raise time wasting to the maximum (last ten to fifteen minutes of the game), if not already set, play no higher than 5 clicks from the left on the sliders for passing (short) and tempo (slow).
Strange as it sounds, I often find through this approach, I score more late goals than my "gung-ho" opponents.
What I believe to be happening is that because at this stage, the AI has thrown caution to the wind, they're leaving more space open that your team can exploit. Through my settings, I'll find that my teams soak up the pressure and then make more considered attacks when the opportunity is on. Because they only go for good attacking opportunities at this stage, they generally score from them.
Having low passing, tempo, but high timewasting, you'll find your team controls the ball and keeps possession. If your opponents can's get the ball, they can't score goals. | 
